Mind the Gap: Institutional Capacity, Globalization, and the Discrepancy between Criminal Justice and Health Homicide Data

Abstract

The homicide rate is a key measure of crime that is particularly valuable for comparative research. In most countries, homicides are recorded both as deaths by public health systems and as crimes by criminal justice systems, enabling a comparison of counts across sources. However, oftentimes there are considerable discrepancies in the data produced by these two systems, undermining the credibility of homicide research. Rather than treat the disparity between the sources as only a methodological problem, we treat the “homicide gap” as an outcome to be explained. Drawing on new institutionalism theory, we argue that homicide data from the two sources will be more similar when country-level public institutions and medical systems have greater capacity and when countries are more highly globalized. Moreover, we expect the effect of globalization to be greater in countries with stronger institutions. This study investigates this “homicide gap” and explores the Interplay between local institutional capacities and global pressures in shaping homicide data. Using Bayesian quantile models, we We analyze homicide data from the UNODC and the WHO across 99 countries from 1991 to 2020. Using Bayesian quantile regression models, we test hypotheses derived from new institutionalism theory. Key predictors are measures of institutional capacity, health system robustness, and globalization. We control for economic and demographic variables found by prior research to be related to homicide rates. Our results show that compared to other countries, those with stronger institutional capacity, and more robust health systems, and greater globalization exhibit significantly smaller homicide gaps. Globalization narrows the gap and has stronger effects compared to health capacity. We also find that countries with stronger local institutions experience a larger effect of globalization on the homicide gap. Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of these results across varying model specifications. The homicide gap reflects complex interactions between institutional dynamics and global influences. Reducing the homicide gap Addressing it requires investment in institutional capacity and sustained international cooperation. Future studies should investigate the quality of other policy-relevant crime data and explore mechanisms for enhancing data quality in low-capacity, low globalization countries.