Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA)
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Item AMERICANS ON THE FY 2020 FEDERAL BUDGET(2019-08) Kull, Steven; Fehsenfeld, Evan; Lewitus, Evan Charles; Koeppel, Austin; Read, EmmalyAs Congress lifts the national debt ceiling, increasing the budget deficit, a unique survey has found that bipartisan majorities are ready to cut the deficit by $376 billion, primarily by raising taxes on high incomes. The survey participants—who were shown the current deficit, and given the opportunity to propose changes in spending and taxes—proposed reversing the 2017 tax cuts for incomes over $200,000, treating capital gains and dividends as ordinary income for those with incomes over $200,000, and applying an extra tax of 4% on income over $5 million. In the interactive online survey, conducted by the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation (PPC), a sample of 2,403 registered voters were presented the discretionary budget (broken into 34 line items) and the budget deficit for 2019. They were given the opportunity to modify spending levels up or down, getting immediate feedback on the impact of their changes on the deficit. While Congress is headed for increasing the defense budget, in the survey a majority cut it $51 billion (Republicans $14 billion, Democrats $101 billion). Majorities of both Republicans and Democrats cut subsidies to agricultural corporations by $7 billion and spending on federal enforcement of federal laws by $2 billion. While majorities of Republicans and Democrats made small increases to some programs, this did not extend to the majority of the whole sample. Overall, the majority made net reductions in spending of $70 billion. Republicans cut $52 billion, Democrats $111 billion, and converged on cuts of $27 billion.Item Americans on Nuclear Weapons(2019-05) Kull, Steven; Gallagher, Nancy; Fehsenfeld, Evan; Lewitus, Evan Charles; Read, EmmalyUS-Russian Arms Control Treaties: More than eight in ten favor the US continuing to have arms control treaties with Russia, with support among Republicans comparable to that of Democrats. Extending New START: Eight in ten favor the United States agreeing to extend the New START Treaty. Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty: Two thirds, including a majority of Republicans, oppose withdrawing from the INF Treaty and favor instead staying within the Treaty and redoubling efforts to work with the Russians to address concerns of both sides. Nuclear Weapons Testing: Overwhelming majorities from both parties approve of the US continuing its moratorium on nuclear testing, effectively abiding by the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. In the event the US develops a technological innovation that might make it possible to build a new type of nuclear weapon that could destroy more of an adversary’s nuclear weapons, a majority still said they would oppose breaking the moratorium, though a bare majority of Republicans favored it. US NUCLEAR WEAPONS CAPABILITIES: Minimum Retaliatory Capability: Eight in ten or more from both parties support the US having a retaliatory nuclear capability destructive enough that no country could think that there would be any advantage in attacking the United States with nuclear weapons. Low Yield Warheads and the Need for Matching Nuclear Options Respondents were presented a rationale for developing nuclear capabilities over and above the minimum retaliatory capability based on the need to threaten to match any type of nuclear capability an adversary might use. When presented a specific example of the current debate over whether the US should put low-yield nuclear warheads on missiles on submarines to match corresponding Russian capabilities, a bipartisan majority of two-thirds supported adding a low-yield option to nuclear missiles on submarines. Yet, when asked about the general principle, a plurality endorsed the view that a minimum retaliatory capability is adequate, over the view that the US must have the capability to retaliate against a major attack using only a type of weapon similar to the type the adversary used. Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs): Knowing that the United States currently has strategic weapons on submarines, bombers, and land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, six in ten, including a majority of Republicans, favor phasing out the ICBM force. However, only one-third favor unilaterally reducing the net number of strategic warheads in the U.S. arsenal instead of putting more warheads on submarines and bombers to keep the same total as the Russians. FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS: US Declaratory Policy on First Use: Only one in five endorsed the United States explicitly declaring that it would consider using nuclear weapons first and stating what kinds of non-nuclear attacks would prompt the United States to consider doing so. Just slightly more than one in five favored explicitly declaring that the United States will never use nuclear weapons first. A majority favored continuing the current policy of being ambiguous about whether and under what conditions the United States would consider using nuclear weapons first. Presented a list of possible types of attack, less than one in six favored declaring that the United States would consider using nuclear weapons in response to any of them. Limiting Presidential First Use: Two thirds, including six in ten Republicans, support Congressional legislation requiring that to use nuclear weapons first, the President would first have to consult Congress and it would have to issue a declaration of war on the country to be attacked with nuclear weapons.Item Americans on Nato(2019-04) Kull, Steve; Fehsenfeld, Evan; Lewitus, Evan Charles; Read, EmmalyCelebrations of the 70th anniversary of NATO on April 4 may be clouded by concerns about statements by Donald Trump questioning the US commitment to NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. However, a new survey finds that 83% of American voters favor the US continuing to be part of NATO, including 90% of Democrats, but also 77% of Republicans and 76% of those who voted for Trump. Concerns about the US commitment to NATO have been sparked by Donald Trump’s characterization of NATO as “obsolete,” and his statements that he might consider withdrawing the US from NATO if other NATO members do not increase their military spending. Respondents were informed about the controversy stemming from US pressure to get European NATO allies to spend more on their militaries. While the European allies have agreed to raise their spending to two percent of GDP, many have failed to do so. Presented three options, only 12% endorsed pressing European allies “to spend more on their military and say that if they do not the US will disengage from Europe militarily and possibly withdraw from NATO”—21% of Republicans, 4% of Democrats. Thirty-five percent favored pressing the Europeans but not making threats.Item Large and Growing Majority Favors Permanent Paid Medical and Family Leave(2020-04) Kull, Steven; Fehsenfeld, Evan; Lewitus, Evan; Read, EmmalyWhile Congress passed legislation requiring temporary paid family and medical leave for those affected by the coronavirus, a new in-depth survey by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland (PPC) finds that two-thirds of Americans believe such paid leave should be permanent—fueled by a marked shift among Republican voters. In March, Congress passed a law providing two weeks of paid leave for people dealing with COVID or caring for someone who does, and 12 weeks at 2/3 pay for parents caring for children home from closed schools and childcare facilities. The new benefits are set to expire at the end of 2020.Item To Regulate Immigration, Only 4 in 10 Favor Building a Wall, While 7 in 10 Favor Requiring Employers to Use E-Verify System, More Guest Worker Visas(2019-01) Kull, Steven; Fehsenfeld, Evan; Lewitus, Evan; Read, EmmalyAn in-depth survey finds that, to discourage illegal immigration, only 4 in 10 favor building a wall, rather a bipartisan majority of 72% favor requiring employers to use the E-Verify system to ensure that the people they hire have the legal right to work in the United States. At the same time, to meet demands for labor 69% favor substantially increasing guest worker visas. To ensure that respondents understood the issue, they were given a short briefing on the US immigration program and a number of possible reforms in proposed Congressional legislation. For the current programs that provide green cards to family members of citizens and permanent residents, large bipartisan majorities oppose eliminating any of the programs, and overall majorities opposed reducing their current numbers. However, majorities of Republicans favor reducing the number of green cards granted in these programs.