Mathematics
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Item Analysis of Models for Epidemiologic and Survival Data(2012) Suntornchost, Jiraphan; Slud, Eric V; Mathematical Statistics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Mortality statistics are useful tools for public-health statisticians, actuaries and policy makers to study health status of populations in communities and to make plans in health care systems. Several statistical models and methods of parameter estimation have been proposed. In this thesis, we review some benchmark mortality models and propose three alternative statistical models for both epidemiologic data and survival data. For epidemiologic data, we propose two statistical models, a Smoothed Segmented Lee-Carter model and a Smoothed Segmented Poisson Log-bilinear model. The models are modifications of the Lee-Carter (1992) model which combine an age segmented Lee-Carter parameterization with spline smoothed period effects within each age segment. With different period effects across age groups, the two models are fitted by maximizing respectively a penalized least squares criterion and a penalized Poisson likelihood. The new methods are applied to the 1971-2006 public-use mortality data sets released by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Mortality rates for three leading causes of death, heart diseases, cancer and accidents, are studied. For survival data, we propose a phase type model having features of mixtures, multiple stages or hits and a trapping state. Two parameter estimation techniques studied are a direct numerical method and an EM algorithm. Since phase type model parameters are known to be difficult to estimate, we study in detail the performance of our parameter estimation techniques by reference to the Fisher Information matrix. An alternative way to produce a Fisher Information matrix for an EM parameter estimation is also provided. The proposed model and the best available parameter estimation techniques are applied to a large SEER 1992-2002 breast cancer dataset.Item SL(3,C)-Character Varieties and RP2-Structures on a Trinion(2006-04-17) Lawton, Sean Dodd; Goldman, William M.; Mathematics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Denote the free group on two letters by F2 and the SL(3,C)-representation variety of F2 by R = Hom(F2, SL(3, C)). There is a SL(3,C)-action on the coordinate ring of R, and the geometric points of the subring of invariants is an affine variety X. We determine explicit minimal generators and defining relations for the subring of invariants and show X is a hyper-surface in C9. Our choice of generators exhibit Out(F2) symmetries which allow for a succinct expression of the defining relations. We then show C[X] is a Poisson algebra with respect to a presentation of F2 imposed by a punctured surface. We work out the bracket on all generators when the surface is a thrice punctured sphere, or a trinion. The moduli space of convex real projective structures on a trinion, denoted by P,is a subset of X. Lastly, we determine explicit conditions in terms of C[X] that distinguish this moduli space.