National Center for Smart Growth

Permanent URI for this communityhttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/21472

The National Center for Smart Growth (NCSG) works to advance the notion that research, collaboration, engagement and thoughtful policy development hold the key to a smarter and more sustainable approach to urban and regional development. NCSG is based at the University of Maryland, College Park, housed under the School of Architecture, Planning, and Preservation, with support from the College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, the A. James Clark School of Engineering, the School of Public Policy, and the Office of the Provost.

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2011 - 20122

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Author: search.filters.author.Mishra, SabyasacheeSubject: search.filters.subject.model

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    A Case for Increased State Role in Transit Planning: Analyzing Land Use and Transit Ridership Connections Using Scenarios
    (2011) Chakraborty, Arnab; Mishra, Sabyasachee
    Land use and neighborhood characteristics have long been linked to transit ridership. Large-scale agencies, such as state departments of transportations, often make decisions that affect land use pattern and transit services. However, the interdependencies between them are seldom harnessed in decision-making. In this article, we develop and apply a transit ridership model based on land use and other neighborhood characteristics for an entire state. We then discuss its implications for regional and state-level decision-making. We chose the state of Maryland as our study area. Using a number of criteria, we subdivided the state into 1151 statewide modeling zones (SMZs) and, for each zone in the base year (2000), developed a set of variables, including developed land under different uses, population and employment densities, free-flow and congested speeds, current transport capacities, and accessibility to different transport modes. We estimated two sets of OLS-regression models for the base year data: one on the statewide SMZs dataset and other on subsets of urban, suburban and rural typologies. We find that characteristics of land use, transit accessibility, income, and density are strongly significant and robust for the statewide and urban areas datasets. We also find that determinants and their coefficients vary across urban, suburban and rural areas suggesting the need for finely tuned policy. Next we used a suite of econometric and land use models to generate two scenarios for the horizon year (2030) – business as usual and high-energy price – and estimated ridership changes between them. We use the resulting scenarios to show how demand could vary by parts of the state and demonstrate the framework’s value in large-scale decision-making.
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    A Mega-region Framework for Analyzing a High Energy Price Future
    (2012) Ducca, Fred; Mishra, Sabyasachee; Moeckel, Rolf; Weidner, Tara
    Mega-regions are a new geography that may well form the “nation's operative regions when competing in the future global economy. A challenge is to determine how to foster greater efficiencies in these mega-regions by creating a stronger infrastructure and technology backbone in the Nation's surface transportation system,” according to the March 2010 FHWA Strategic Plan. To meet this challenge these regions will need analysis tools to evaluate scenarios and their regional impacts, analysis tools covering areas larger than covered by the typical Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) or State Department of Transportation (DOT) models. This paper describes what makes mega-regions different and identifies analytic issues mega-regions may need to address, identifies the Chesapeake Mega-region and provides a framework for analyzing issues within the Chesapeake mega-region. Finally, the framework is tested through a proof of concept scenario which assumes a sudden price rise in gasoline prices and the likely effects on travel. A brief summary of further work and additional scenarios planned is provided.