Economics

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Start date: 1980End date: 1999

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    An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Initial Occupational Choice by Male High School Graduates
    (1986) Cox, Donald Francis; Brechling, Frank; Economics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, MD)
    This dissertation consisted of an empirical analysis of the determinants or initial occupational choice by male high school graduates. The approach used was based on the theory of random utility. According to this approach, the individual selects a particular outcome from a set of possible outcomes based on both observed and unobserved characteristics of the individual and the particular possible outcome. In this analysis, the occupational choice set contained three possible outcomes. These possibilities were civilian sector employment, military service and college enrollment. For empirical analysis, a sample of 1,748 male high school graduates was drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youths (1979-1981). The empirical model consisted of a mixed discrete/continuous simultaneous 4 equation system. Three estimation strategies were used. The first was a sample two stage logit/ordinary least squares procedure. The second was a modified two stage logit/ordinary least squares procedure that corrected for self-selectivity bias. the third strategy consisted of a modified two stage logit/ordinary least squares procedure that corrected for both self-selectivity and choice-based sampling bias. The estimation results indicate that the decision to enlist is most sensitive to the net income of the individual's family and the predicted civilian sector wage. The military experience of the individual's father and the desire to acquire additional training are also important in this decision. In addition, the differences in the estimates across the three estimation procedures illustrate the importance of correcting for sample biases.
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    Fiscal Illusion in Public Finance: A Theoretical and Empirical Study
    (1989) Marshall, Frances Louise Lightsey; Economics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md)
    This study of fiscal illusion begins by surveying existing studies of its nature and consequences: finding no consensus upon its definition proposes a comprehensive one: "the misperception by one or more individuals of the value of one or more fiscal parameters." No specifications of source, locus, nature, duration, variables affected, or direction of bias are presumed, and none are precluded. The issue of aggregation of individual perceptions, often preempted as definitional, is found to be crucial in interpreting the existing literature. The theoretical portion of the study uses the standard consumer choice model and the median voter model, again finding that the method of aggregating individual choices is crucial. It demonstrates that high average and total levels of fiscal illusion can be consistent with efficient social outcomes and that survey evidence is inappropriate for assessing the importance of fiscal illusion. It further finds that the impact of fiscal illusion on individual welfare provides a source of potential gain for agents who can dispel that illusion in individuals who may be decisive for the outcome of the collective choice process. An examination of the incentives of various agents to dispel illusion concludes that, though the existing literature evinces a recurrent concern that fiscal illusion results in misallocation of resources to and within the public sector, especially through the public officials' manipulation of citizens' perceptions, there exists a considerable array of forces that have significant power to limit the ability of such illusion to impose important burdens upon the electorate. The work concludes with an empirical study of the fiscal illusion hypothesis, in which estimates of the dollar magnitudes of the state tax "windfalls" resulting from the federal Tax Reform Act of 1986 are calculated and, in the estimated model, are found to exert no significant impact upon either the levels of state expenditures or changes in those levels. Because the windfalls are exogenous, this finding is free from the simultaneity issues that have compromised existing empirical studies of fiscal illusion. The results are consistent with the proposition that existing forces effectively limit the sway of fiscal illusion.
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    A Brief Guide to C and C++ for Fortran or Basic Programmers
    (1999) Almon, Clopper
    This paper introduces C and C++ programming for learners who already have some experience in another language such as Fortran or Basic. It explains basic syntax, dynamic space allocation, structures, classes, constructors and destructors, and overloading of operators. All concepts are illustrated with working programs.
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    The Distributional Effects of Carbon Regulation
    (Edward Elgar, 1999) Cramton, Paul A.
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    Nonrandom Mixing Models of HIV Transmission
    (Springer-Verlag, 1989) Kaplan, Edward H.; Cramton, Peter; Paltiel, A. David
    Models of HIV transmission and the AIDS epidemic generally assume random mixing among those infected with HIV and those who are not. For sexually transmitted HIV, this implies that individuals select sex partners without regard to attributes such as familiarity, attractiveness, or risk of infection. This paper formulates a model for examining the impact of nonrandom mixing on HIV transmission. We present threshold conditions that determine when HIV epidemics can occur within the framework of this model. Nonrandom mixing is introduced by assuming that sexually active individuals select sex partners to minimize the risk of infection. In addition to variability in risky sex rates, some versions of our model allow for error (or noise) in information exchanged between prospective partners. We investigate several models including random partner selection (or proportionate mixing), segregation of the population by risky sex rates, a probabilistic combination of segregation and random selection induced by imperfect information (or preferred mixing), and a model of costly search with perfect information. We develop examples which show that nonrandom mixing can lead to epidemics that are more severe or less severe than random mixing. For reasonable parameter choices describing the AIDS epidemic, however, the results suggest that random mixing models overstate the number of HIV infections that will occur.
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    The Effect of Collective Bargaining Legislation on Strikes and Wages
    (MIT Press, 1999) Cramton, Peter; Gunderson, Morley; Tracy, Joseph
    Using Canadian data on large, private-sector contract negotiations from January 1967 to March 1993, we find that strikes and wages are substantially influenced by labor policy. The data indicate that conciliation policies have largely been ineffective in reducing strike costs. In contrast, general contract reopener provisions appear to make both unions and employers better off by reducing negotiation costs without systematically affecting wage settlements. Legislation banning the use of replacement workers appears to lead to significantly higher negotiation costs and redistribution of quasi-rents from employers to unions.
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    Shrewd Bargaining on the Moral Frontier: Toward a Theory of Morality in Practice
    (Philosophy Documentation Center, 1991) Dees, J. Gregory; Cramton, Peter
    From a traditional moral point of view, business practitioners often seem overly concerned about the behavior of their peers in deciding how they ought to act. We propose to account for this concern by introducing a mutual trust perspective, where moral obligations are grounded in a sense of trust that others will abide by the same rules. When grounds for trust are absent, the obligation is weakened. We illustrate this perspective by examining the widespread ambivalence with regard to deception about one’s settlement preferences in negotiation. On an abstract level, such deception generally seems undesirable, though in many individual cases it is condoned, even admired as shrewd bargaining. Because of the difficulty in verifying someone’s settlement preferences, it is hard to establish a basis for trusting the revelations of the other party, especially in competitive negotiations with relative strangers.
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    Promoting Honesty in Negotiation: An Exercise in Practical Ethics
    (Philosophy Documentation Center, 1993) Cramton, Peter; Dees, J. Gregory
    In a competitive and morally imperfect world, business people are often faced with serious ethical challenges. Harboring suspicions about the ethics of others, many feel justified in engaging in less-than-ideal conduct to protect their own interests. The most sophisticated moral arguments are unlikely to counteract this behavior. We believe that this morally defensive behavior is responsible, in large part, for much undesirable deception in negotiation. Drawing on recent work in the literature of negotiations, we present some practical guidance on how negotiators might build trust, establish common interests, and secure credibility for their statements thereby promoting honesty. We also point out the types of social and institutional arrangements, many of which have become commonplace, that work to promote credibility, trust, and honesty in business dealings. Our approach is offered not only as a specific response to the problem of deception in negotiation, but as one model of how research in business ethics might offer constructive advice to practitioners.
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    Money Out of Thin Air: The Nationwide Narrowband PCS Auction
    (Blackwell, 1995) Cramton, Peter
    The Federal Communications Commission held its first auction of radio spectrum at the Nationwide Narrowband PCS Auction in July 1994. The simultaneous multiple-round auction, which lasted five days, was an ascending bid auction in which all licenses were offered simultaneously. This paper describes the auction rules and how bidders prepared for the auction. The full history of bidding is presented. Several questions for auction theory are discussed. In the end, the government collected $617 million for ten licenses. The auction was viewed by all as a huge success—an excellent example of bringing economic theory to bear on practical problems of allocating scarce resources.
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    Synergies in Wireless Telephony: Evidence from the Broadband PCS Auctions
    (Blackwell, 1997) Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter; McAfee, R. Preston; McMillan, John
    We examine bid data from the first two broadband PCS spectrum auctions for evidence of value synergies. First, we estimate a benchmark regression for the determinants of final auction prices. Then, we include variables reflecting the extent to which bidders ultimately won or already owned the adjacent wireless properties. Consistent with geographic synergies in an ascending-bid auction, prices were higher when the highest-losing bidder had adjacent licenses. The footprints of winning bidders suggest that they were often successful in realizing these synergies.