Theses and Dissertations from UMD
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Item The Language of Central Banking: Probing Global Monetary Policy Communications Spillovers and Central Bank Shocks with Natural Language Processing Tools and a Novel Text Database(2024) Baird, Cory; Swagel, Phillip; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The discipline of macroeconomics relies mainly on structured data for empirical research, despite unstructured text data being vastly more abundant. This text data, particularly central bank communications, holds untapped potential for monetary economics research due to their influence on market expectations and policy outcomes like inflation. To help guide monetary policy researchers in exploring the growing universe of text data, this research lays out a foundational framework, both in terms of coding infrastructure and Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods. The first step in building out this infrastructure is through the creation of a new open-source central bank text database consisting of monetary policy communications from 14 countries consisting of 2,418 monetary policy statements. I leverage this novel database to explore the literature on "information effects," which has mainly relied on structured data for empirical analysis despite the possibility that the phenomenon itself is attributable to the linguistic elements or sentiment expressed via central bank communications. Chapter 1 (The Anatomy of a Central Bank Statement and Information Shocks) details the steps necessary to create a reproducible and scalable database of monetary policy statements from a diverse group of countries using the latest open source technologies and modern data science practices. I find that positive co-movement between policy rates and equities (what the literature defines as an "information shock") is a common event, with almost half of all policy rate increases (decreases) occurring alongside higher (lower) equity prices. With linguistic regressions and part-of-speech annotations, I provide novel linguistic evidence that information shocks are likely related to both the future state of the economy \parencite{nakamura2018high} and inflation expectations \parencite{boehm2021beyond}. Chapter 2 (Sentiment Analysis-From Past to Present) develops a novel approach for extracting sentiment at the sentence level using cutting-edge transformers models, the architecture behind many large language models (LLMs). My research demonstrates that transformer models as well as the traditional lexical methods employed in the economic literature, can produce starkly divergent results when applied to the same monetary policy statement. This highlights the critical need to utilize multiple sentiment measures to ensure the robustness of any findings derived from textual analysis. Reinforcing the linguistic evidence from Chapter 1, I show that positive (negative) sentiment is associated with positive (negative) information shocks providing further evidence the shocks are driven by the language of the statement itself. I also show that positive sentiment is associated with higher GDP growth in the quarters following a monetary policy statement. Chapter 3 (Central Bank Shocks and Global Spillovers), aggregates sentiment measures from the previous chapter to produce what I call the Global Policy Stance (GPS). I find that the GPS, led by the U.S., Japan, and Switzerland, tends to co-move with the global financial cycle (Global Asset Prices Factor from \textcite{miranda2020global}). I also find that domestic sentiment, rather than U.S. or global sentiment, is predictive of future policy rate changes suggesting that markets may be more sensitive to the communications of the home country's central bank. This thesis sets a rigorous standard for database transparency and code reproducibility above and beyond what is standard practice in the economics literature today. I will publicly release the codebase encompassing data retrieval, cleaning processes, figure generation, model development, all of which were produced utilizing the open-source Python programming language. Through this public release, I will provide researchers with valuable coding infrastructure that supports the operationalization of best practices in data management, enabling (1) the creation of open-source databases fostering collaboration and automation, as well as (2) the development of reproducible, scalable algorithms for text classification and text cleaning processes. In the future, I intend to further build out the central bank database to include other types of monetary policy communications (e.g., minutes and speeches) while also separately maintaining a repository of text classification algorithms (e.g. positive and negative sentiment) including lexical dictionaries from the literature as well as fine-tuned transformer models.Item AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE FUTURE “HYDROGEN ECONOMY”: DECARBONIZATION POTENTIAL, SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS, AND POLICY APPROACHES(2024) O'Rourke, Patrick Robert; Hultman, Nathan; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Recently clean hydrogen has captured the attention of policy communities, as evidenced by the publication of hydrogen “roadmaps” or “strategies” by dozens of nations. This is partly because it can be produced from numerous primary energy resources and utilized in a plethora of ways to enable decarbonization. However, there remain open questions as to how the energy carrier should contribute toward carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation. Additionally, less is known about its impacts on other societal objectives and whether government plans for hydrogen are driven by realistic expectations regarding its ability to facilitate emissions reductions. This dissertation involves three studies which simulate energy transitions within the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), each aiming to help illuminate hydrogen’s potential impact on society. First, clean hydrogen supply and demand within the context of decarbonization is investigated. In this research, it is found that hydrogen could be a decentralized energy carrier, as a large portion of its production is enabled by onsite production (i.e., at the location of the end user). In terms of demand, although it will represent a smaller portion of global final energy compared to alternatives, hydrogen enables CO2 mitigation in difficult-to-electrify end uses (e.g., satiating demand for industrial high-temperature heat). The second topic of this dissertation examines hydrogen’s potential implications for the water-energy-food nexus. It is found that clean hydrogen production is unlikely to be a large source of water demand, however, its availability in the forthcoming energy transition could cause larger indirect changes in water demand for many regions of the world. Additionally, clean hydrogen availability is found to enable lower staple crop prices, as it provides a method of reducing CO2 associated with fertilizer manufacturing. Lastly, this dissertation analyzed the Japanese and Korean national hydrogen plans. Aligning with the results from the first research topic of this work, hydrogen’s use within their economies is lower than alternative decarbonization strategies (e.g., direct electrification). As a result, the national plans of both nations are found to be overestimating the scale of hydrogen supply. Further, both countries are generally setting numerical goals for hydrogen deployment in areas of the economy that are less economically efficient compared to alternative sectors where it could both facilitate decarbonization as well as bolster their economies.Item ARE CANADA’S NET-ZERO PLANS ACHIEVABLE, PRUDENT, AND DURABLE?(2024) O'Keefe, Kowan; Sprinkle, Robert; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Canada is a major oil- and gas-producing country that has committed into law the goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy-wide by 2050. Yet the prospect of reduced Canadian oil production has major domestic political and economic implications. Climate change mitigation requires sustained policy engagement, and so policymakers must endeavor to make climate policy that is politically durable. Scenario analysis is a vital decision-support tool for understanding these transition dynamics associated with pursuit of net zero. The first paper in this dissertation explores transition dynamics for Canada across several scenarios with detailed policy representation for achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), an open-source multi-sector dynamics model. The results highlight the importance of effective policy implementation and the variation in transition dynamics attributable to socioeconomic and technological assumptions, carbon dioxide removal scalability, and non-CO2 mitigation. The second paper in this dissertation uses GCAM to examine the sensitivity of Canadian oil production to several external forces in pursuit of net zero. The results show that forces outside of Canada’s control are highly determinative of future oil production levels in Canada. But if Canada moves toward net-zero GHG emissions on its announced timeline, it can reduce the magnitude of the additional declines in Canadian oil production attributable to external forces. Such a move would give Canada greater autonomy to shape transition outcomes in a way that best balances domestic societal priorities. The alternative would be for external forces to thrust a transition upon Canada without regard for such domestic concerns. The third paper in this dissertation examines how these domestic political forces impact Canada’s pursuit of net zero using archival analysis followed by scenario analysis in GCAM. The results of the qualitative policy analysis highlight that a little more than one third (9 of 26) of the modeled policies are less likely to be politically durable, because they fail tests of pan-political acceptability or pan-regional acceptability or both. Reductions in net GHG emissions are significantly smaller in modeled current-policy scenarios where these nine policies are rolled back after 2025. Accordingly, the policies identified as less likely to be politically durable demand greater focus to build stronger cross-party and cross-regional support.Item Perspectives on Power Structures in U.S.-Funded Foreign Aid(2024) Bloom, Heidi Nicole; Lin, Jing; Ginsburg, Mark; Education Policy, and Leadership; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)This research explores U.S.-funded foreign aid policies and practices from the perspectives of foreign aid professionals, focusing on their views regarding the impact of neocolonialism, obstacles in decolonizing the sector, and power dynamics within crucial aspects of foreign aid practices. Historically, U.S.-funded foreign aid has prioritized national interests, reflected colonial dynamics, and perpetuated neocolonial legacies. Using a decolonial lens as its conceptual framework, the study examines the discursive construction of meanings and relationships within the foreign aid sector. Through a mixed-methods approach involving 91 survey responses, 15 interviews, and post-interview questionnaires conducted one year later, the research gathers diverse perspectives across various foreign aid sectors. The findings underscore neocolonial practices, stressing the importance of local consultation in program design and highlighting challenges in funding allocation and political imperatives. While positive shifts prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Black Lives Matter movement suggest progress toward power redistribution and diversity initiatives, skepticism remains about their depth. The study concludes with a systems approach, advocating for interventions at individual, organizational, and governmental levels to disrupt neocolonial practices, promote anti-racism, empower local counterparts, and reform policies. This comprehensive approach aims to enhance equity and effectiveness in the foreign aid ecosystem through self-reflection and critical analysis from the perspectives of foreign aid professionals.Item Examination of US Transportation Public-Private Partnership Experience: Performance and Market(2024) Zhang, Kunqi; Cui, Qingbin; Civil Engineering; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Worldwide, public-private partnership (P3) project performance and benefits accrued to market participants are understudied. Focusing on the US, this dissertation examines the country’s transportation P3 experience through three empirical studies comparing P3 to design-bid-build (DBB), the traditional delivery method. Throughout, the Information Source for Major Projects database, built by a University of Maryland team in which the author led the data collection effort, served as the data source. In the first study, the researchers examined P3 cost and time performance using piecewise linear growth curve modeling, recognizing that past cross-sectional studies had produced mixed results. With 133 major transportation projects, the longitudinal analysis confirmed P3’s time performance advantage and efficiency diffusion effecting cost savings in DBB, where efficiency diffusion was a new term describing the spillover and internalization of technical and managerial innovations inducing an efficient outcome. The second study used social network analysis to investigate collaboration patterns among different types of players in the P3 market (i.e., public sponsors, special purpose vehicles, investors, lenders, advisors, contractors, and professional service firms). With 135 projects and 1009 organizations, data found that both P3 and DBB networks are small worlds. Exponential random graph modeling revealed that practicing in the DBB market helps firms participate in P3 projects and that large firms (vis-à-vis small/medium-sized firms) are not privileged. The third study, further exploring the P3 market, focused on the Disadvantaged Business Enterprise (DBE) program. Administered by the US Department of Transportation, the program promotes the participation of small, disadvantaged firms in federal-aid projects. Linear regressions on 134 contracts showed that P3 associates with higher DBE goals in terms of percentage of dollars to be awarded to DBEs, whereas the delivery method does not affect the actual attainment. Overall, the findings justify continued policy support towards P3 implementation.Item Econometric Evaluation of Transportation Policies: Decarbonization and Electrification(2024) Burra, Lavan Teja; Cirillo, Cinzia; Civil Engineering; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The transportation sector, one of the largest contributors to global energy-related emissions, is undergoing a major transition. Governments worldwide are implementing stringent fuel economy and emissions standards, promoting the adoption of electric vehicles--a key technology for decarbonizing the transport sector--through various policy measures. This dissertation contains four chapters, studying the effects of such policies implemented across major vehicle markets and evaluating their effectiveness, with a particular focus on the electrification of light-duty passenger vehicle fleet. The first chapter explores whether multi-car households shift mileage to the most fuel-efficient car in response to increasing driving costs, which carries implications for designing effective fuel economy standards. The second chapter investigates the potential interaction between purchase subsidies given to consumers in buying electric vehicles (EVs) and expanding the public charging network. The third chapter focuses on the effectiveness of purchase subsidies for EV buyers and quantifies the free-rider share, given that this is a commonly employed policy measure worldwide. The final chapter explores the differential effects of level 2 and level 3 chargers, as well as the distributional impacts of public charging network on driving EV uptake across various demographic groups and built environment characteristics. Overall, the chapters in this dissertation employ travel survey data, longitudinal and big data analysis, causal identification, optimal policy design, counterfactual simulations, and a combination of data and economic reasoning to glean insights on the effectiveness and equitable aspects of policies aiming to decarbonize and electrify the transportation sector.Item THE ROLES AND IMPLICATIONS OF AGRICULTURAL AND ENERGY RESOURCES TRADE IN A CLIMATE CHANGE-MITIGATING WORLD(2024) Yarlagadda, Brinda; Hultman, Nathan E.; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Global dependence on agricultural and energy resources trade has grown significantly in the past several decades. In the coming decades, the roles and implications of international trade of various commodities will change, influenced by and important for achieving climate mitigation goals. As globalization increases, new energy technologies emerge, and new climate-oriented trade policies are enacted, there is a need to understand the resulting implications (opportunities and vulnerabilities) on exporters and importers. I present three essays that use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to evaluate future, inter-regional trade dynamics in a climate-mitigating world. Essay 1 focuses on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a key agricultural exporting region. I show that agricultural market integration (i.e., the reduction of trade barriers) and climate mitigation policies could increase agricultural production and trade opportunities for many LAC economies (particularly in southern South America). Total net export revenue across LAC could reach $110-$270 billion annually by 2050. However, these opportunities could also pose significant economic and environmental trade-offs, including emissions reduction challenges, potential loss of livestock production, increased consumer expenditures, and deforestation and water scarcity pressures. Essay 2 explores the role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade as a rapidly emerging technology compared to pipeline natural gas. I analyze how advances in LNG technology, limitations on trade, and climate mitigation policies could affect global and regional vulnerabilities in energy supply. Globally, new additions in LNG and pipeline export infrastructure, range from 330-1330 and 130-440 million tons per annum (MTPA), respectively, by 2050 across scenarios, with the lower end of this range achieved through a transition to a net-zero energy system and limited trade. The results also highlight diverging risks for different gas exporters. For example, Russia, which produces gas largely for pipeline exports, may face larger underutilization due to advances in LNG technology and geopolitical shifts than regions oriented towards domestic and LNG markets, such as the USA and Middle East. Essay 3 evaluates whether import-restrictions on deforestation linked oil crops (i.e., oil palm and soybean) can be effective in reducing deforestation and land use change (LUC) emissions as well as their broader economic implications. I find that current EU restrictions will likely have minimal impact. If extended beyond the EU, import restrictions could drive reductions in cumulative LUC emissions in key oil-crop exporting regions— up to 0.9% in Indonesia, 1.5% in the rest of Southeast Asia, 3.8% in Argentina and 6.7% in Brazil, relative to a scenario with no import restrictions. However, these key exporters could also face losses ranging $4.1-$61 billion in cumulative agricultural production revenue by 2050.Item UNDERSTANDING NONPROFITS’ USE OF DEBT INSTRUMENTS TO FINANCE CAPITAL PROJECTS: PERSPECTIVES FROM THE LANSCAPE OF NONPROFIT BOND FINANCE, NONPROFIT CAPITAL STRUCTURE, AND TAX-EXEMPT BOND CREDIT RATINGS(2024) Sun, Qingqing; Bies, Angela; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)This dissertation delves into the significant challenges nonprofit organizations face in accessing tax-exempt bond markets—a vital resource for financing their capital projects and expanding services, particularly in capital-intensive sectors like hospitals and housing-related nonprofits. Although these bonds are intended to provide cost-effective capital for public service entities, nonprofits encounter greater borrowing obstacles than governmental entities, a phenomenon insufficiently studied due to data limitations. To bridge this research gap, my study leverages a unique dataset combining IRS 990 Schedule K forms and municipal bond data, thereby enriching our comprehension of nonprofit financing in the bond market. The overarching question of this research is why nonprofits choose particular debt instruments over others for their capital funding needs and to identify the barricades that hinder more nonprofits from leveraging the municipal bond market efficiently. The first essay examines the nonprofit bond issuance landscape, identifying disparities in interest rates, underwriter fees, and bond rating acquisition among various nonprofit sectors. Notably, charter schools and senior housing nonprofits face higher interest and issuance costs and exhibit lower tendencies to obtain bond ratings, pivotal for signaling creditworthiness and reducing interest rates. Furthermore, there's a uniformly low tendency across all subsectors to obtain credit enhancements, indicating nonprofits' difficulties in persuading credit enhancement agencies willing to take over their default. The reluctance to secure bond ratings and credit enhancements highlights a systemic issue within nonprofit financing, potentially escalating financial risks. The second essay scrutinizes nonprofits' financial decisions concerning mortgages, tax-exempt bonds, and insider loans through the lens of static trade-off (STT) and pecking order theories (POT). Analysis via a Heckman selection model indicates that nonprofits with more diverse revenue streams and with stable source of income have increased usage of mortgages with lower issuance costs and greater repayment flexibility, aligning with STT. Conversely, these nonprofits are less inclined to use tax-exempt bonds, a finding that aligns POT. The results challenge conventional capital structure theories and underscoring the need for novel theoretical perspectives. The third essay explores the impacts of nonprofits' financial conditions on their bond credit ratings. Ordered probit regression with the Heckman selection correction reveal that nonprofits’ tendency towards financial leanness contributes to low bond crediting ratings. Specifically, minimized profits, operating revenue, and cash flows, combined with over-dependence on donations and program revenue lead to weaker credit ratings. This scenario reveals a paradox where financial prudence, intended to foster donor confidence, inadvertently signals limited debt repayment capacity to credit rating agencies, inflating borrowing costs. Collectively, these essays contribute significantly to understanding the financial barriers impeding nonprofits' effective use of tax-exempt bonds, underscoring a high-risk perception regarding nonprofit bonds among investors and financial agencies. The insights garnered from this dissertation also underscore critical areas for future research and policymaking, aimed at facilitating more equitable and efficient capital access for nonprofits, thereby enhancing their ability to serve marginalized communities and fulfill their mission-driven objectives.Item THREE ESSAYS IN HUMANITARIAN OPERATIONS: PREPARATION AND RESPONSE TO DISASTERS(2024) Sabol, Matthew; Dresner, Martin; Evers, Philip; Business and Management: Logistics, Business & Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Three essays related to humanitarian operations are examined. The first essay addresses the impact of humanitarian operations on recovery from disasters. Event study methodology is used to demonstrate the economic impact of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) disaster recovery operations on economic recovery. The second essay examines how political considerations can impact government response to natural disasters. Based on theories of public choice and congressional dominance, models are formulated and fixed-effects regressions are used to examine the impact of political alignment and control on government-led humanitarian response. The third essay provides a comparative analysis among four inventory management methods used to prepare for humanitarian operations, under conditions of uncertain demand. Demands for key materials are simulated, based on data from the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), relevant to humanitarian operations. General propositions are formulated for inventory managers in preparation for humanitarian operations.Item THREE ESSAYS ON DECARBONIZATION STRATEGIES(2024) Luo, Kaifang; Qiu, Yueming; Public Policy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Efforts toward decarbonization are vital to achieving future net-zero carbon emissions. Managing energy demand, shifting from fossil fuels to low-carbon sources such as renewables, and deploying carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies are all effective decarbonization strategies. This dissertation comprises three essays exploring demand-side decarbonization strategies.Essay 1 evaluates the effectiveness of the electricity rate structure. This essay examines whether commercial consumers respond to nonlinear pricing schedules. I investigate a four-tiered rate structure from 5/1/2013 to 12/31/2016 in Phoenix Metropolitan, Arizona, including 597 commercial accounts. Hourly electricity consumption data makes it possible to detect consumption changes at each cutoff. This essay finds that consumers with higher usage tend to be more sensitive to average prices, while consumers with lower usage are more sensitive to marginal prices. The results indicate that nonlinear rate structures can reduce electricity consumption, particularly for commercial consumers with lower energy demand. Furthermore, policymakers should tailor conservation policies differently for commercial electricity consumers to manage energy demand. Essay 2 investigates the co-adoption of renewable technologies. While market and behavioral factors have been attributed to the low adoption rate of low-carbon technologies, one factor has yet to be fully explored - the network of renewable energy actors. This essay focuses on the residential co-adoption of solar PV and battery storage. The results confirm the importance of central coordinators and the need for highly cooperative groups among involved RE actors to advocate for co-adoption. Policymakers or policy entrepreneurs may serve as a bridge between isolated actors in the network or facilitate closed-loop relationships between allies, thereby facilitating technological diffusion in the solar and battery sectors. Essay 3 examines the impact of CCUS technologies. A CCUS supply chain captures CO2 and delivers it to a suitable location where CO2 can either be used or injected deep underground for long-term storage. While it reduces carbon emissions, it also poses risks to local communities. This essay examines the net impact of CCUS projects. By combining nationwide CCUS data with property-level transaction data between 1990 and 2021, this essay finds that residents living within 4.2 km of a CCUS facility enjoy an average price premium of 4.14% (or $9,673). Interviews with real estate agents near CCUS projects indicate their positive impact may be attributed to job creation and housing demand. Policymakers can use the information about possible price premiums to influence local perceptions of CCUS technologies and to promote their global deployment.