Theses and Dissertations from UMD
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New submissions to the thesis/dissertation collections are added automatically as they are received from the Graduate School. Currently, the Graduate School deposits all theses and dissertations from a given semester after the official graduation date. This means that there may be up to a 4 month delay in the appearance of a give thesis/dissertation in DRUM
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Item Essays on Information and Non-Bayesian Beliefs(2024) Liu, Zhenxun; Filiz-Ozbay, Emel; Economics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)In this dissertation, I present a comprehensive discussion of a class of biases within the realm of probabilistic reasoning, namely confirmation bias (encompassing or closely related to commonly seen terms in the literature such as motivated reasoning and wishful thinking). The dissertation consists of three main chapters. In Chapter 1, I propose a new and improved belief updating model that can accommodate both motivated and unmotivated confirmation bias. The model improves upon existing models in its ability to explain data better, and its applicability to settings beyond binary-state spaces. I characterize the model with three intuitive axioms. In two extended applications, I show that the model establishes a link between confirmation bias and several well-known phenomena, such as the significance of first impressions, the polarization of beliefs, and the perseverance of inaccurate beliefs. In Chapter 2, I turn to the experimental elicitation of motivated and unmotivated confirmation bias. Previous experiments have provided evidence for motivated and unmotivated confirmation bias individually, but never discussed the possibility that the two can occur together in depth. This chapter presents one of the first experiments that examines both forms of confirmation bias together. Subjects were asked to update their beliefs regarding both politically contextualized questions and neutral questions. Subjects exhibited both motivated and unmotivated confirmation bias, but there was also significant heterogeneity among them. Notably, motivated confirmation bias is significantly stronger in later rounds of the experimental tasks, which may be correlated with the shorter response times in the later rounds. In Chapter 3, which is joint work with Emel Filiz-Ozbay, we discuss wishful thinking (motivated confirmation bias) within a major application. In a rational inattention setting where consumers acquire information on the good’s quality before making purchasing decisions, we examine the implications of the presence of consumers with wishful thinking. These biased consumers are unaware of their bias, and weigh any good news about the product quality more heavily than a Bayesian consumer. The firm, which aims to increase the volume of sales, can strategically constrain the accuracy of the information that consumers can acquire. We show that in the presence of biased consumers, a firm would find it profitable to constrain information acquisition unless the prior belief on the quality of the product is too low. We characterize the conditions under which the entry of a competitor firm can effectively alleviate this type of exploitation. Our findings shed light on the incentives of review platforms for bombarding wishful consumers with low quality product reviews and limit consumers’ ability to identify to reviews with informative contents.Item American Populism, Political Information, and Trade Opinion(2022) Campana, Robert David Louis; Gimpel, James G.; Government and Politics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Trade policy is a complex issue that involves economics and international politics. Traditionally, Americans have not often expressed opinions on trade policy due to its high issue complexity and because Democrats and Republican politicians since the later part of the 20th century have been inconsistent in their support for neoliberalism or protectionism. Despite this, populist candidates like Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have repeatedly used their support for protectionist policies to differentiate themselves from more mainstream candidates. Using multiple public opinion surveys and survey experiments, this project explores how populism, anti-expert sentiment, anti-capitalism, diversity anxiety, and ethnonationalism influence American’s views on free trade policy and shows that all these factors are associated with greater support for protectionist policies. Additionally, this project examines and adjusts for the unusually high level of non-response regarding questions about trade policy.This project also analyzes what causes Americans to think trade policy (specifically, the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership) is more important. This project finds that Americans who believe themselves to be strangers in their own country are more likely to believe the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific partnership is important. Meanwhile, Americans who believe the United States is less respected than in the past are less likely to believe the Trans-Pacific Partnership is important. Two survey experiments are conducted to see how the presence of “don’t know” responses in trade opinion questions and patriotic framing shift attitudes on trade policy. In both cases, issue framing does not significantly shift opinion on trade policy. This project carries out a longitudinal study to see how the same group of Americans shift their attitudes on trade policy over a multi-year time frame. Generally, these shifts are very small; however, Americans with differing views on regulation displayed the greatest attitudinal shift. Initially, Americans who wanted more government regulation were the most protectionist while Americans who wanted less government regulation were the least protectionist. Over the multi-year period, this association became significantly less visible. Finally, this project analyzes how economic attitudes, immigration attitudes, economic identity, immigrant identity, local immigrant populations, and local economic data influence views on trade policy. The study finds that immigration attitudes are closely aligned with views of trade policy.Item Mal-Content(2017) Brooks, Curtis W.; Richardson, William C; Art; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Mal-Content is a project culminating in an exhibition including several laser-cut etchings, a large vinyl application to the wall, and a small book of symbols. This document consists of visual documentation and an edited transcript of a self-interview about the genesis, intellectual basis, and critical and material realities of the project. Mal-Content explores the nature of information as it is carried, rather than what it carries, through application of successive processes of technological and manual manipulations.Item Information and environmental policy(2015) Wichman, Casey John; Williams, Roberton C; Cropper, Maureen; Agricultural and Resource Economics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Within this manuscript, I present three distinct essays linked by the commonality of how information is utilized in decision-making and its effect on environmental policy. In the first essay, I evaluate the price to which consumers respond under complicated billing structures. I exploit a natural experiment to estimate a causal effect of price for residential water customers during the introduction of increasing block rates for a North Carolina utility. Perceived price is identified through a billing anomaly in which changes in marginal and average prices move in opposite directions. Empirical results contribute evidence that residential water customers respond to average price. Average price elasticity estimates vary from -0.43 to -1.14 across the distribution of consumption in triple-difference models, with an estimate of -0.31 in the tightest bandwidth of regression discontinuity specifications. In the second essay, I examine a causal effect of billing frequency on consumer behavior. I exploit a natural experiment in which residential water customers transitioned exogenously from bi-monthly to monthly billing. I find that customers increase consumption by approximately five percent in response to more frequent information. This result is reconciled in a model of price and quantity uncertainty, where increases in billing frequency reduce the distortion in consumers' perceptions. Using treatment effects as sufficient statistics, I calculate gains in consumer surplus equivalent to 0.5--1 percent of annual water expenditures. Heterogeneous treatment effects suggest increases in outdoor water use. And, in the final essay, I consider the role of heterogeneous green preferences for private provision of environmental public goods in an asymmetric information context. Under varying degrees of information available to a regulator, I characterize equilibrium properties of several mechanisms. I find incentive compatible Nash equilibria that provide socially optimal public goods provision when the regulator can enforce individual consumption contracts, as well as when reported consumption contracts are supplemented with group penalties. The role of budget balancing is recast as a policy intervention for correcting environmental market failures.Item Information Diffusion: A Study of Twitter During Large Scale Events(2014) Rogers, Christa Daniella; Herrmann, Jeffrey; Systems Engineering; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The diffusion of information through population affects how and when the public reacts in various situations. Thus, it is important to understand how and at what speed important information spreads. Social media platforms are important to track and understand such diffusion. Twitter provides a convenient and effective way to measure it. This study used data obtained from 15,000 Twitter users. Data was collected on the following events: Hurricane Irene, Hurricane Sandy, Osama Bin Laden's capture, and the United States' 2012 Presidential Election. Information such as the time of a tweet, the user name, content, and the ID was analyzed to measure the diffusion of information and track the trajectory of retweets. The spread of information was visualized and analyzed to determine how far and how fast the information spread. The results show how information spreads and the content analysis of data sets indicate the importance of different topics to users.Item Information Control: Leadership Power in the U.S. House of Representatives(2011) Curry, James Michael; Lee, Frances E; Government and Politics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Most congressional scholarship argues that legislative leaders--majority party leaders and committee chairs--are strongly constrained, weak agents of their rank-and-file. This study argues that information, and leaders' ability to control it, is a significant and independent source of power for leaders in the House of Representatives. Most rank-and-file members of Congress lack the time and resources necessary to track, study, or become deeply involved in legislating on most bills considered by the House. As a result, they rely on sources that can synthesize the information they need to decide whether or not to support the bill, offer an amendment, or take other actions. The party leadership and committee chairs, because of their staff and resource advantages, are important sources of information for the rank-and-file. However, legislative leaders often exploit their informational advantages to help their preferred legislation gain easy passage through the chamber. Along with the ability to perpetually collect information on rank-and-file preferences, and provide leadership-approved information about legislation, legislative leaders also have an arsenal of tools to limit the availability of information including withholding legislative language, scheduling votes on short notice, and using large and complex legislation as a vehicle. This information control puts leaders in the driver's seat, allowing them to lead the chamber by shaping the information driving the debate on a bill. Thirty interviews with members of Congress and congressional staff, along with a unique dataset of important legislation considered by the House of Representatives are used to support this theory. Leaders are found to employ information control tactics strategically, to aid the passage of their priority legislation and in response to the potential for significant influence from outside groups. The study, overall, suggests that legislative leaders in the House are more influential than they are typically perceived to be and that participation in congressional policymaking is often restricted.Item Rover: Architectural Support for Exposing and Using Context(2010) Almazan, Christian Butiu; Agrawala, Ashok K; Computer Science; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Technology has advanced to the point where many people feel it has created a world with an insurmountable amount of information. Information includes messages people send to each other, logged data from their activities, and the services available to them. This problem has been exaggerated in modern societies by high availability of Internet connectivity. All types of information contains context, whether they have been stated explicitly or understood implicitly. Understanding, handling, and using context represents one of the most critical steps towards coping with the amount of information available today. In this dissertation, we examine two topics: context and the design of a context-aware platform. We describe fundamental types of context associated with every piece of information and discuss issues which may occur when implementing a system which utilizes context. We present a context-aware platform called Rover. The Rover architecture provides a conceptual framework geared towards understanding how application developers can utilize a variety of aspects of context to assist the development of modern applications. To aid developers in figuring out what context may be useful in their application, we describe the concept of a Rover ecosystem: a logical organization analogous to how similar groups of people interact with each other. We also discuss how information and context can be shared between ecosystems. To examine the feasibility of the Rover architecture's conceptual framework, we have implemented a reference implementation of the core unit of a Rover ecosystem: the Rover server. We discuss the details of the Rover server and describe the implementation of an emergency response application which demonstrates the utility of the conceptual framework.Item Entanglement and Information in Algebraic Quantum Theories(2008) Valente, Giovanni; Bub, Jeffrey; Philosophy; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The algebraic approach to physical theories provides a general framework encompassing both classical and quantum mechanics. Accordingly, by looking at the behaviour of the relevant algebras of observables one can investigate structural and conceptual differences between the theories. Interesting foundational questions can be formulated algebraically and their answers are then given in a mathematically compelling way. My dissertation focuses on some philosophical issues concerning entanglement and quantum information as they arise in the algebraic approach. The se two concepts are connected in that one can exploit the non-local character of quantum theory to construct protocols of information theory which are not realized in the classical world. I first introduce the basic concepts of the algebraic formalism by reviewing von Neumann's work on the mathematical foundations of quantum theories. After presenting the reasons why von Neumann abandoned the standard Hilbert space formulation in favour of the algebraic approach, I show how his axiomatic program remained a mathematical "utopia" in mathematical physics. The Bayesian interpretation of quantum mechanics is grounded in information-theoretical considerations. I take on some specific problems concerning the extension of Bayesian statistical inference in infinite dimensional Hilbert space. I demonstrate that the failure of a stability condition, formulated as a rationality constraint for classical Bayesian conditional probabilities, does not undermine the Bayesian interpretation of quantum probabilities. I then provide a solution to the problem of Bayesian noncommutative statistical inference in general probability spaces. Furthermore, I propose a derivation of the a priori probability state in quantum mechanics from symmetry considerations. Finally, Algebraic Quantum Field Theory offers a rigorous axiomatization of quantum field theory, namely the synthesis of quantum mechanics and special relativity. In such a framework one can raise the question of whether or not quantum correlations are made stronger by adding relativistic constraints. I argue that entanglement is more robust in the relativistic context than in ordinary quantum theory. In particular, I show how to generalize the claim that entanglement across space-like separated regions of Minkowski spacetime would persist, no matter how one acts locally.Item Information Technology and Rural Market Performance in Central India(2008-04-25) Goyal, Aparajita; Duggan, Mark; Kranton, Rachel; Economics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)How do improvements in information impact market performance? This dissertation examines the effect of an innovative initiative launched by a private company in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. Beginning in October 2000, it set up 1700 internet kiosks and 45 warehouses that provide wholesale price information and an alternative marketing channel to soybean farmers in the state. I develop a theoretical model of this intervention and estimate the impact using a new market-level dataset with spatial geo-coded information. The causal effect is isolated by exploiting the variation in the timing of the introduction of kiosks and warehouses across districts of the state. The estimates suggest an immediate and significant increase in the monthly wholesale market price of soybeans after the introduction of kiosks, lending support to the predictions of the theoretical model. While the presence of warehouses appears to have no effect on price, warehouses are associated with a dramatic reduction in the volume of sales in the traditional markets. Moreover, there is a significant increase in the area under soy cultivation. The estimates are robust to disaggregated measures of treatment and comparisons with alternative crops grown in the same season as soy. The analysis suggests that information can substantially enhance the functioning of rural markets by increasing the competitiveness of buyers.Item Champions of the Public or Purveyors of Elite Perspectives? Interest Group Activity in Information and Communications Policy(2004-07-06) Sherman, Tina Won; McIntosh, Wayne; Government and Politics; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Communication is a valuable tool of democratic politics as it is used by citizens to persuade decision-makers, and it also allows groups to come together and provide citizens with information about the polity. Today, communication that relies on the Internet plays an increasing role in how information is exchanged between citizens. Theorists assert that the democratic potential of the Internet and related communication technologies is great, given that citizens are able to serve as both producers and receivers of information. Yet, the policies that underlie the communications industry and the technologies it produces can limit that potential. This industry and its technologies are influenced by business interests that can limit democratic potential in favor of marketplace demands, leaving the policymaking process described in arenas, including as information and communications (info-comm) policy, as more elitist in nature than political scientists would otherwise like to believe. This study seeks to examine how elitism impacts the public interest position furthered by info-comm groups by exploring the following paradox: the leadership of the info-comm policy community help citizens participate in politics while at the same time deem the public generally unaware and uninformed on info-comm policy issues. This study's primary research question asks whether leadership of the info-comm policy community inform themselves about the public interest through dialogue with citizens. The secondary question for this research observes whether the leadership of the info-comm policy community approach their decision-making in a democratic fashion. These research questions and related propositions were tested through semi-structured interviews with the leadership of the info-comm policy community, including info-comm group leaders and the foundation grant officers that financially support them. The responses of the interviewees illustrate the impact of elitism on the formulation of policy positions by leaders and pose further considerations for the activities of this policy community. The findings of this study support the aforementioned paradox, suggesting that the public's voice in this policy arena may be more limited than we would otherwise expect. This could have implications for the future direction of info-comm policy and its related technologies, ultimately limiting the citizen participation in democratic deliberation.