Theses and Dissertations from UMD

Permanent URI for this communityhttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/2

New submissions to the thesis/dissertation collections are added automatically as they are received from the Graduate School. Currently, the Graduate School deposits all theses and dissertations from a given semester after the official graduation date. This means that there may be up to a 4 month delay in the appearance of a give thesis/dissertation in DRUM

More information is available at Theses and Dissertations at University of Maryland Libraries.

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Author: search.filters.author.Kim, WoonSubject: search.filters.subject.multinomial logit model

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    Empirical analysis and modeling of freeway incident duration
    (2007-12-14) Kim, Woon; Chang, Gang-Len; Civil Engineering; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
    This study presents a set of models for predicting incident duration and identifying variables associated with the incident duration in the state of Maryland. The incident database for years 2003 to 2005 from the Maryland State Highway (MDSHA) database is used for model development, and year 2006 for the model validation. This study, based on the preliminary analysis with the Classification Tree method, has employed the Rule-Based Tree Model to develop the primary prediction model. To enhance the prediction accuracy for some incidents with complex nature or limited samples, the study has also proposed and calibrated several supplemental components based on the Multinomial Logit and Regression methods. Although the prediction accuracy could still be improved if a data set with better quality is available, the developed set of models offers an effective tool for responsible agencies to estimate the approximate duration of a detected incident, which is crucial in projecting the potential impacts on the highway network.