Computer Science Theses and Dissertations
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/2756
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Item Statistical Methods for Analyzing Time Series Data Drawn from Complex Social Systems(2015) Darmon, David; Girvan, Michelle; Rand, William; Applied Mathematics and Scientific Computation; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)The rise of human interaction in digital environments has lead to an abundance of behavioral traces. These traces allow for model-based investigation of human-human and human-machine interaction `in the wild.' Stochastic models allow us to both predict and understand human behavior. In this thesis, we present statistical procedures for learning such models from the behavioral traces left in digital environments. First, we develop a non-parametric method for smoothing time series data corrupted by serially correlated noise. The method determines the simplest smoothing of the data that simultaneously gives the simplest residuals, where simplicity of the residuals is measured by their statistical complexity. We find that complexity regularized regression outperforms generalized cross validation in the presence of serially correlated noise. Next, we cast the task of modeling individual-level user behavior on social media into a predictive framework. We demonstrate the performance of two contrasting approaches, computational mechanics and echo state networks, on a heterogeneous data set drawn from user behavior on Twitter. We demonstrate that the behavior of users can be well-modeled as processes with self-feedback. We find that the two modeling approaches perform very similarly for most users, but that users where the two methods differ in performance highlight the challenges faced in applying predictive models to dynamic social data. We then expand the predictive problem of the previous work to modeling the aggregate behavior of large collections of users. We use three models, corresponding to seasonal, aggregate autoregressive, and aggregation-of-individual approaches, and find that the performance of the methods at predicting times of high activity depends strongly on the tradeoff between true and false positives, with no method dominating. Our results highlight the challenges and opportunities involved in modeling complex social systems, and demonstrate how influencers interested in forecasting potential user engagement can use complexity modeling to make better decisions. Finally, we turn from a predictive to a descriptive framework, and investigate how well user behavior can be attributed to time of day, self-memory, and social inputs. The models allow us to describe how a user processes their past behavior and their social inputs. We find that despite the diversity of observed user behavior, most models inferred fall into a small subclass of all possible finitary processes. Thus, our work demonstrates that user behavior, while quite complex, belies simple underlying computational structures.Item Network Algorithms for Complex Systems with Applications to Non-linear Oscillators and Genome Assembly(2013) Schmitt, Karl Robert Bruce; Girvan, Michelle; Zimin, Aleksey; Applied Mathematics and Scientific Computation; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)Network and complex system models are useful for studying a wide range of phenomena, from disease spread to traffic flow. Because of the broad applicability of the framework it is important to develop effective simulations and algorithms for complex networks. This dissertation presents contributions to two applied problems in this area First, we study an electro-optical, nonlinear, and time-delayed feedback loop commonly used in applications that require a broad range of chaotic behavior. For this system we detail a discrete-time simulation model, exploring the model's synchronization behavior under specific coupling conditions. Expanding upon already published results that investigated changes in feedback strength, we explore how both time-delay and nonlinear sensitivity impact synchronization. We also relax the requirement of strictly identical systems components to study how synchronization regions are affected when coupled systems have non-identical components (parameters). Last, we allow wider variance in coupling strengths, including unique strengths to each system, to identify a rich synchronization region not previously seen. In our second application, we take a complex networks approach to improving genome assembly algorithms. One key part of sequencing a genome is solving the orientation problem. The orientation problem is finding the relative orientations for each data fragment generated during sequencing. By viewing the genomic data as a network we can apply standard analysis techniques for community finding and utilize the significantly modular structure of the data. This structure informs development and application of two new heuristics based on (A) genetic algorithms and (B) hierarchical clustering for solving the orientation problem. Genetic algorithms allow us to preserve some internal structure while quickly exploring a large solution space. We present studies using a multi-scale genetic algorithm to solve the orientation problem. We show that this approach can be used in conjunction with currently used methods to identify a better solution to the orientation problem. Our hierarchical algorithm further utilizes the modular structure of the data. By progressively solving and merging sub-problems together we pick optimal `local' solutions while allowing more global corrections to occur later. Our results show significant improvements over current techniques for both generated data and real assembly data.