Essays on Labor Markets and Inflation

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Date

2023

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Abstract

This dissertation presents research on several topics in economics.
Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 explore the implications of geographic labor mobility in the context of the US labor market. These chapters share a common motivation based on statistics presented herein describing the geographic dimension of job switching behavior; primarily that a surprisingly high share of job-to-job flows within the US take place across metropolitan areas. Chapter 1 explores the microeconomic implications of this for workers through the lens of non-local outside options. In labor markets with frictions, outside options are a key determinant of workers' wages and firms' rents. When outside options improve, workers can benefit by switching jobs, but even those that remain in the same job can realize gains through leveraging their improved bargaining position to renegotiate wages. In this chapter, I study the geographic dimension of workers' outside options and effects on labor mobility and wages for job stayers. I show that a large share of job-to-job flows are across metropolitan areas (MSAs), which suggests that the non-local dimension of labor market opportunities may be substantial. To obtain causal estimates of the effect of non-local outside options on wages and geographic labor mobility, I construct measures of exposure to changes in labor market conditions in other markets, and use a shift-share instrumental variable strategy to identify exogenous variation in non-local labor demand. I find that increases in labor demand in an MSA's network of labor markets are associated with increased job-to-job outflows with an elasticity of about .30, and higher wage growth for job stayers with an elasticity of .11. The effect of non-local shocks on job switching and wage growth is 30-50 % of similar estimates of the effect of local labor demand shocks. Labor mobility is much more responsive to demand from MSAs with the strongest historic labor flows, which account for about 70% of the total mobility effect. I find similar mobility responses across education levels, but the effect of non-local outside options on wage growth is concentrated on workers without a 4-year college degree and in industries with lower average education levels.

Chapter 2 turns to the macroeconomic implications of geographic labor mobility in determining long-run labor market outcomes. Using U.S. data, I show that job-to-job flows across metro areas are about 40% of all metro area job-to-job flows, and that there is substantial heterogeneity across metro areas in the rate of incoming and outgoing job-to-job flows. I introduce a general equilibrium model of spatial on-the-job search that provides a framework for studying the effects of labor markets' heterogeneous geographic positions on long-run outcomes. In the model, labor demand is endogenous and wage bargaining allows me to explore the implications of worker's labor mobility on employer market power. I calibrate a simple version of the model and find that relative to an economy with no mobility, there is a moderate increase in average wages and a fall in unemployment. Changes in firm rents due to workers' stronger bargaining position account for about half of the increase in average wages.

In Chapter 3, I present coauthored work studying methods for the measurement of inflation using large, micro-level retail sales data sources. In particular, this chapter explores alternative methods for adjusting price indices for quality change at scale. These methods can be applied to large-scale item-level transactions data that includes information on prices, quantities, and item attributes. The hedonic methods can take into account the changing valuations of both observable and unobservable characteristics in the presence of product turnover. This chapter also considers demand-based approaches that take into account changing product quality from product turnover and changing appeal of continuing products. This chapter provides evidence of substantial quality-adjustment in prices for a wide range of goods, including both high-tech consumer products and food products.

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