Response of the coastal ocean and estuaries to tropical cyclones

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dc.contributor.advisorLi, Mingen_US
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Fanen_US
dc.contributor.departmentMarine-Estuarine-Environmental Sciencesen_US
dc.contributor.publisherDigital Repository at the University of Marylanden_US
dc.contributor.publisherUniversity of Maryland (College Park, Md.)en_US
dc.date.accessioned2018-07-17T06:05:46Z
dc.date.available2018-07-17T06:05:46Z
dc.date.issued2018en_US
dc.description.abstractLandfalling tropical cyclones (TC) pose great threats to public safety. The recent decades have witnessed major advances of knowledge in TC dynamics and improvement in TC forecast models, however, occasionally inaccurate TC intensity and storm surge predictions remain a vital concern. Different representations of subgrid-scale physics by various atmospheric model parameterization schemes lead to uncertainty in predictions of TC’s intensity and associated surges. In a case study for Hurricane Arthur (2014), local closure scheme for planetary boundary layer turbulence produces lower equivalent potential temperature than non-local closure schemes, leading to under-predicted TC intensity and surge heights. On the other hand, higher-class cloud microphysics schemes over-predict TC intensity and surge heights. Without cumulus parameterization for coarse-resolution grids, both TC intensity and surge heights are grossly under-predicted due to large precipitation decreases in the storm center. To avoid widespread predictions, the ensemble mean approach is shown to be effective. Another source of TC forecast error is inaccurate sea surface temperature (SST) prediction, and accurate SST prediction necessitates a better understanding of mixing processes in the coastal ocean. Previously, the importance of TC-induced near-inertial currents (NICs) to mixing in the coastal ocean was overlooked. With high-frequency radar and autonomous glider, long-lasting NICs with amplitudes of ~0.4 m s-1 were observed on the shelf during Arthur. With an atmosphere-ocean model, we find the NICs were dominated by mode-1 vertical structure and were a major contributor to the shear spectrum. Therefore, NICs may be important in producing turbulent mixing and surface cooling during Arthur’s passage. In the future, with warmer SST, sea level rise, and possible hard shorelines in estuaries, increased storm surge hazard is expected. Using Isabel (2003) as a case study, we find storm intensification under 2100 SST raises surge heights in Chesapeake Bay by 0.1-0.4 m given increased energy input. While sea level rise in 2100 reduces surge heights by 0-0.15 m through non-linear processes, it increases total water level by 0.4-1 m. Moreover, hard shoreline further increases surge heights by up to 0.5 m in the middle and upper Chesapeake Bay by prohibiting energy flux towards wetlands.en_US
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.13016/M2S46H90P
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/20929
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subject.pqcontrolledPhysical oceanographyen_US
dc.subject.pqcontrolledEnvironmental scienceen_US
dc.subject.pqcontrolledGeophysicsen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledclimate changeen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledhurricane dynamicesen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledhurricane forecasten_US
dc.subject.pquncontrollednear inertial wavesen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledshoreline managementen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledstorm surgeen_US
dc.titleResponse of the coastal ocean and estuaries to tropical cyclonesen_US
dc.typeDissertationen_US

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