THE EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN LAND COVER AND LAND USE ON NUTRIENT LOADINGS TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY USING FORECASTS OF URBANIZATION

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dc.contributor.advisorPrince, Stephen D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorRoberts, Allen Derricken_US
dc.contributor.departmentGeographyen_US
dc.contributor.publisherDigital Repository at the University of Marylanden_US
dc.contributor.publisherUniversity of Maryland (College Park, Md.)en_US
dc.date.accessioned2010-07-02T05:34:26Z
dc.date.available2010-07-02T05:34:26Z
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.description.abstractThis dissertation examined the effects of land cover and land use (LC/LU) change on nutrient loadings (mass for a specified time) to the Chesapeake Bay, after future projections of urbanization were applied. This was accomplished by quantifying the comprehensive impacts of landscape on nutrients throughout the watershed. In order to quantify forecasted impacts of future development and LC/LU change, the current (2000) effects of landscape composition and configuration on total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were examined. The effects of cover types were examined not only at catchment scales, but within riparian stream buffer to quantify the effects of spatial arrangement. Using the SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model, several compositional and configurational metrics at both scales were significantly correlated to nutrient genesis and transport and helped estimate loadings to the Chesapeake Bay with slightly better accuracy and precision. Remotely sensed forecasts of future (2030) urbanization were integrated into SPARROW using these metrics to project TN and TP loadings into the future. After estimation of these metrics and other LC/LU-based sources, it was found that overall nutrient transport to the Chesapeake Bay will decrease due to agricultural land losses and fertilizer reductions. Although point and non-point source urban loadings increased in the watershed, these gains were not enough to negate decreased agricultural impacts. In catchments forecasted to undergo urban sprawl conditions by 2030, the response of TN locally generated within catchments varied. The forecasted placement of smaller patches of development within agricultural lands of higher nutrient production was correlated to projected losses. However, shifting forecasted growth onto or adjacent to existing development, not agricultural lands, resulted in projected gains. This indicated the importance of forecasted spatial arrangement to projected TN runoff from the watershed. In conclusion, comprehensive landscape analysis resulted in differences in simulations of current and future nutrient loadings to the Chesapeake Bay, as a result of urbanization and LC/LU change. With eutrophication from excess nutrients being the primary challenge to the estuary, information gained from the estimation of these effects could improve the future management and regulation of the Chesapeake Bay.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1903/10230
dc.subject.pqcontrolledGeographyen_US
dc.subject.pqcontrolledEnvironmental Sciencesen_US
dc.subject.pqcontrolledRemote Sensingen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledChesapeake Bayen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledLand Cover and Land Use (LC/LU) Changeen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledNutrient Loadingsen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledProjected Future Urbanizationen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledRemote Sensingen_US
dc.subject.pquncontrolledSPARROW Modelen_US
dc.titleTHE EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN LAND COVER AND LAND USE ON NUTRIENT LOADINGS TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY USING FORECASTS OF URBANIZATIONen_US
dc.typeDissertationen_US

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