THE WATER-ENERGY-LAND NEXUS OF BIOENERGY PRODUCTION IN BRAZIL

Abstract

Biofuels play a critical role in the Paris Agreement to help achieve climate change mitigation targets. However, a significant increase in production of biofuels might potentially be realized at the expense of overusing natural resources, particularly land and water. Understanding the tradeoffs between the development of biofuels and its impacts on land and water is a critical issue for sustainable development. This energy-water-land nexus might be particularly important for Brazil, given its position as top exporter and second top producer of bioenergy. Furthermore, Brazil itself has set up its own Intended Nationally Determined Contribution agenda with a significant growth of biofuel production by 2030. The aim of this research is to quantitatively characterize the nexus of biofuels production with the overall appropriation of land and water resources at the subnational level in Brazil by answering the following questions: (i) How will the implementation of international climate mitigation commitments adopted by Brazil impact water and land use and therefore water and land stress in Brazil?; (ii) what will be the geographical distribution of such impacts at subnational level? ; (iii) will increase competition among economic sectors aggravate such impacts?; and (iv) how will other socio-economic and physical drivers of change affect those impacts combined with INDC related policies implementation?. To answer these questions, I developed a set of socio-economic, policy and climate scenarios through an environmentally extended input-output approach that represents socio-economic activities in the 27 Brazilian states, allowing comparison of the resulting water and land demands among main competitive users under different scenarios. I also introduced the use of water scarcity and land stress as environmental impact indicators. My study confirms that to properly understand the impacts of biofuel production in Brazil on land and water and its “nexus”, the consideration of resource scarcity and its spatial variability are key to ensure sustainable planning of biofuel production. Moreover, I found that the mitigation policies committed by Brazil and its role as top global provider of biofuel will take a significant toll in both water and land consumption in the country, leading to increasing competition among food production, energy generation and human consumption, especially in the most vulnerable and already environmentally stressed states.