The Clinic Surge Planning Model: Performance Estimates and Validation Results

Abstract

In case of a terrorist attack or natural outbreak of a contagious disease, it may be necessary to vaccinate patients in mass quantities. This paper focuses on the creation and implementation of a mathematical model that gives an estimate of the performance of a clinic with a modeled number of stations and staffing, given that there is a large number of patients waiting before the clinic opens. The model was created in Microsoft Excel so that it can be easily accessed by any clinic. Simulation for the purpose of validation was done in Rockwell Arena. Two separate simulations with different cases were compared to estimates made by the planning model to determine its accuracy.