Rent affordability after hurricanes: Longitudinal evidence from US coastal states

Abstract

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of natural hazards such as hurricanes. With a severe shortage of affordable housing in the United States, renters may be uniquely vulnerable to disaster-related housing disruptions due to increased hazard exposure, physical vulnerability of structures, and socioeconomic disadvantage. In this work, we construct a panel dataset consisting of housing, socioeconomic, and hurricane disaster data from counties in 19 states across the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States from 2009 to 2018 to investigate how the frequency and intensity of a hurricane correspond to changes in median rent and housing affordability (the interaction between rent prices and income) over time. Using a two-stage least square random-effects regression model, we find that more intense prior-year hurricanes correspond to increases in median rents via declines in housing availability. The relationship between hurricanes and rent affordability is more complex, though the occurrence of a hurricane in a given year or the previous year reduces affordable rental housing, especially for counties with higher percentages of renters and people of color. Our results highlight the multiple challenges that renters are likely to face following a hurricane, and we emphasize that disaster recovery in short- and medium-term should focus on providing safe, stable, and affordable rental housing assistance.