Modeling the Dynamics of Opinion Formation and Propagation: An Application to Market Adoption of Transportation Services

Abstract

The objective of this research is to present a model that utilizes social and learning mechanisms to first explore the underlying dynamics of opinion formation and propagation, and then applies those mechanisms to an application of freight mode choice to investigate the effect that opinions have on choice set considerations, attribute perceptions, and the market adoption of a new rail freight service. Primary contributions of this research include the explicit modeling of social and learning mechanisms and their effects on opinion formation and propagation, the evolution of these opinions over time, and an exploration of the role that opinion dynamics have in choice processes. Research findings will offer insight to the process of evolving attitudes, perceptions, and opinions and the effects on individuals' judgment and decision making. It will also offer insight to the effects of attribute distortion on decision making.