Lasting Consequences of State Violence in Chile (1973-2020): A Cascade of Violence?

Abstract

This study examines the long-term consequences of state violence, arguing that it can cascade across time and domains, generating both persistence and legacies of violence. Using Chile as a case study, I analyze two peaks of human rights violations: the Pinochet dictatorship (1973–1990) and the recent social unrest (2019–2020). I test whether historical state violence predicts contemporary state, political, and interpersonal violence. County-level data were compiled from multiple sources, including truth commission reports, human rights institutions, crime statistics, and social conflict databases. I employ a 2SLS design that uses the location of military bases in 1970 as an instrumental variable. Results show that counties with greater exposure to historical state violence experienced higher levels of contemporary state violence, as well as elevated political and interpersonal violence decades later. These findings reveal the persistence and enduring legacies of state violence, illustrating its criminogenic potential.