Building Back Greener: Energy Efficiency Transitions in the Residential Building Stock Following Floods

Abstract

Under climate change, global temperatures are increasing and extreme temperature events are becoming more frequent and severe. Demand for space conditioning is growing as a result, which continues to drive up the energy consumption and emissions of the residential building stock. At the same time, the frequency and severity of natural disasters are also increasing with climate change. These disasters can result in significant turnover within the residential building stock, although the majority of homeowners rebuild their homes to previous conditions. To date, no research has systematically nor quantitatively assessed the potential impacts of “greening” residential rebuilding after disasters, nor how local climate and evolving risks influence net benefits. This dissertation addresses this significant gap through three studies. First, we combine the building energy and disaster recovery spaces to develop a novel simulation model grounded in contemporary risk science. Our model combines physics-informed, building-level energy modeling, probabilistic flood modeling, and homeowner decision-making to evaluate outcomes for Harris County, Texas, under multiple reconstruction scenarios. Second, to evaluate the penetration and impact of post-disaster energy efficiency modifications under climate change, we build upon this model to additionally incorporate rational decision makers, climate change-influenced precipitation and flood events, and climate change-influenced weather forecasting. Third, we investigate the impact of various potential post-disaster reconstruction policies, such as incentives and subsidies that encourage the implementation of energy efficiency upgrades, within the model to better understand how federal and local policies may realistically improve post-disaster reconstruction outcomes. Overall, we find that the post-disaster reconstruction window presents a critically underutilized opportunity to fundamentally transform energy consumption, emissions, and peak load outcomes within the residential building stock. These outcomes are particularly compelling under more severe climate futures and with greater homeowner engagement, yet this potential is rarely harnessed. Current policies often fail to capitalize on this window, resulting in a missed chance to build back better and more sustainably. To ensure lasting change, we find that proactive policies, particularly those aimed at lower-income households, are needed that incentivize and mandate energy-efficient upgrades during post-disaster rebuilding. Such policies are effective at increasing upgrade penetration, yielding meaningful reductions in energy consumption, emissions, and peak loads in the building stock, and are more cost-effective than other energy efficiency programs explored in the literature. By acknowledging and actively addressing this gap, policymakers can transform disaster recovery from a reactive process into a catalyst for long-term energy sustainability and climate resilience.