Race, Disadvantage, and the Probability of Arrest: A Multi-Level Study of Baltimore Neighborhoods (2016-2018)

Abstract

This study examines the relationship among neighborhood racial composition, concentrated disadvantage, and the probability of an arrest following a Part 1 crime report. Racial threat theory predicts that as the proportion of Black residents increases over time (dynamic proxy for racial threat), the use of formal social control will increase, while the benign neglect hypothesis predicts that formal social control will diminish in areas with relatively higher proportions of Black residents (static proxy for racial threat). I test racial threat theory and the benign neglect hypothesis for both citizen-initiated and officer-initiated Part 1 crime reports, using Baltimore Police Department crime reports and arrest data, as well as block group characteristics from the 2011-2015 American Community Survey. Through multi-level modeling and including both static and dynamic measures of racial threat, I find that proportion Black is negatively associated with the probability of arrest; concentrated disadvantage has no effect. This finding supports the benign neglect hypothesis and is robust to alternative model specifications, including controlling for victim gender and race. Implications for policy and theories in the conflict tradition are discussed.