THE U.S. ARCTIC SECURITY DILEMMA: THE EFFECT OF STRATEGIC CHOICES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF U.S. ARCTIC STRATEGIES

Abstract

The Arctic has long been a region of strategic significance, yet the first U.S. Arctic strategy was developed more than a century after the United States became an Arctic nation. Subsequent administrations have initiated strategic reviews at various points in their tenure, prioritized different objectives, adjusted resourcing, and implemented more or less cooperative or competitive approaches. Not all administrations crafted new Arctic strategies, despite significant changes in the geopolitical, economic, and environmental landscape. What explains the timing, content, implementation, and effectiveness of the U.S. Arctic strategies adopted in 1971, 1994, 2009, and 2013, and what does that suggest about the 2022 National Strategy for the Arctic Region and future Arctic strategies? This dissertation develops and applies three decision-making models to the U.S. Arctic strategy development and implementation. It finds that the unitary rational actor model holds the most explanatory power due to unique characteristics of, enduring national interests in, and low policy prioritization given to the Arctic, while the worldview model and special interest model help explain some strategic choices, particularly in the implementation process. This dissertation also assesses whether U.S. Arctic strategy has considered regional security dilemma dynamics and discovered that unintended consequences often result from inadequate attention to the impact of U.S. strategic choices on other nations. When applied to the 2022 National Strategy for the Arctic Region, findings suggest continuity in enduring U.S. interests, alongside heightened tensions between climate leadership and strategic competition likely to cause implementation problems. By identifying determinants of strategic reviews, policy choices, and implementation successes or failures, this research recommends steps to help U.S. policymakers develop and implement future Arctic strategies that balance diverse national interests more coherently and advance them more effectively.