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    The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City

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    External Link(s)
    http://www.nber.org/papers/w27021
    Date
    2020-04-13
    Author
    Harris, Jeffrey
    Citation
    Harris, J. (2020). The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City. National Bureau of Economic Research. doi:10.3386/w27021
    DRUM DOI
    https://doi.org/10.13016/a4n7-zd9j
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    Abstract
    New York City’s multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evident throughout the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership in Manhattan – down by over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates strongly with the substantial increase in the doubling time of new cases in this borough. Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation. Local train lines appear to have a higher propensity to transmit infection than express lines. Reciprocal seeding of infection appears to be the best explanation for the emergence of a single hotspot in Midtown West in Manhattan. Bus hubs may have served as secondary transmission routes out to the periphery of the city.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/1903/25988
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