UNDERSTANDING AND MODELLING TIME USE, WELL BEING AND DYNAMICS IN ACTIVITY-TRAVEL BEHAVIOR: A CHOICE BASED APPROACH
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Understanding the determinants of activity and travel related choices is critical for policy-makers, planners and engineers who are in charge of the management and design of large scale transportation systems. These systems, and their externalities, are interwoven with human actions and communities’ evolution. Traditionally, individual decision-making and travel behaviour studies are based on random utility models (RUM) and discrete choice analysis. To extend the ability of modellers to represent and forecast complex travel behaviour, this dissertation expands existing models to accommodate the influence of variables other than the traditional socio-demographics or level of service variables. In this thesis, technology innovations, psychological factors, and perceptions of future uncertainty are integrated into the classical RUMs and their effects on activity-travel decision making are investigated. Technology innovations, such as telecommunication, online communities and entertainment, release individual’s time and space constraints. They also modify people’s activity and travel choices. An integrated discrete-continuous RUM is proposed to study individuals’ participation in leisure activities, which is an important component of activity scheduling analysis and tour/trip formation. Leisure alternatives considered include: computer/internet related activity, in-home activity, and out-of-home activity. Compared to previous discrete-continuous models, interdependence among activities and the related time usage is explored using a modelling structure that accommodate full correlation among decision variables of different types. Standard random utility models are extended by including attitudes and perceptions as latent variables; these constructs are expected to enhance the behavioural representation of the choice process. A simultaneous structural model is proposed to represent the mutual effects existing between psychological factors and activity choices. Biases due to endogeneity in psychological factors and activity choices are taken into consideration in the model. To further extend the behavioural realism of our model, this thesis proposes a new simultaneous equation model formulation that links psychological indicators to activity participation and time use decisions. Unlike previous studies, the proposed method allows the psychological factors to be correlated with time use decisions and serve as an attribute in time use choice model. A new iterative simulated maximization estimation method is also proposed to accommodate possible endogeneity bias in the model system. A simulation experiment shows that the estimation method produces consistent and unbiased estimation results. Moreover, a real case study is also implemented in the context of participation in leisure activities, linking emotions, activity involvement and time use. After exploring individual’s decisions on activity and time use choices, a dynamic discrete choice model framework is proposed to accommodate stochasticity in individual behaviour over time. Following previous studies, activity patterns are decomposed into tour and stop sequences. Accordingly, a tour choice model and a stop choice model are jointly formulated under a unified framework with a hierarchical structure where stop choices are assumed to be conditional on tour choices. The results indicate that individuals are sensitive to current and future changes in travel and activity characteristics and that a dynamic formulation better represents multi-day travel behaviour.