Browsing by Author "Ducca, Fred"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Even Smarter Growth? Land Use, Transportation, and Greenhouse Gas in Maryland
    (2014) Knaap, Gerrit; Welch, Timothy; Avin, Uri; Ducca, Fred; Mishra, Sabyasachee; Cui, Yuchen; Erdogan, Sevgi
    Urban form studies have generally used regional density vs. sprawl land use scenarios to assess travel behavior outcomes. The more nuanced but nonetheless important allocation of jobs and housing and their relationship to each other as a factor in travel behavior has received much less attention. That relationship is explored in this statewide urban form study for Maryland. This is a state where county land use has a long tradition of growth management, but one whose regional and statewide implications have not been evaluated. How does a continuation of the County level smart growth regime play out statewide compared to other scenarios of job and housing distribution that are driven by higher driving costs or transit oriented development goals or local zoning rather than local policy-driven projections? Answers are provided through the application of a statewide travel demand model, the Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM). The findings suggest that the debate should move beyond walkability, density and compact growth and towards a more productive dialog about how we organize whole cities and regions.
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    A functional integrated land use-transportation model for analyzing transportation impacts in the Maryland-Washington, DC Region
    (2011) Mishra, Sabyasachee; Ye, Xin; Ducca, Fred; Knaap, Gerrit
    The Maryland-Washington, DC region has been experiencing significant land-use changes and changes in local and regional travel patterns due to increasing growth and sprawl. The region’s highway and transit networks regularly experience severe congestion levels. Before proceeding with plans to build new transportation infrastructure to address this expanding demand for travel, a critical question is how future land use will affect the regional transportation system. This article investigates how an integrated land-use and transportation model can address this question. A base year and two horizon-year land use-transport scenarios are analyzed. The horizon-year scenarios are: (1) business as usual (BAU) and (2) high gasoline prices (HGP). The scenarios developed through the land-use model are derived from a three-stage top-down approach: (a) at the state level, (b) at the county level, and (c) at the statewide modeling zone (SMZ) level that reflects economic impacts on the region. The transportation model, the Maryland Statewide Transport Model (MSTM), is an integrated land use-transportation model, capable of reflecting development and travel patterns in the region. The model includes all of Maryland, Washington, DC, and Delaware, and portions of southern Pennsylvania, northern Virginia, New Jersey, and West Virginia. The neighboring states are included to reflect the entering, exiting, and through trips in the region. The MSTM is a four-step travel-demand model with input provided by the alternative land-use scenarios, designed to produce link-level assignment results for four daily time periods, nineteen trip purposes, and eleven modes of travel. This article presents preliminary results of the land use-transportation model. The long-distance passenger and commodity-travel models are at the development stage and are not included in the results. The analyses of the land use-transport scenarios reveal insights to the region’s travel patterns in terms of the congestion level and the shift of travel as per land-use changes. The model is a useful tool for analyzing future land-use and transportation impacts in the region.
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    A Mega-region Framework for Analyzing a High Energy Price Future
    (2012) Ducca, Fred; Mishra, Sabyasachee; Moeckel, Rolf; Weidner, Tara
    Mega-regions are a new geography that may well form the “nation's operative regions when competing in the future global economy. A challenge is to determine how to foster greater efficiencies in these mega-regions by creating a stronger infrastructure and technology backbone in the Nation's surface transportation system,” according to the March 2010 FHWA Strategic Plan. To meet this challenge these regions will need analysis tools to evaluate scenarios and their regional impacts, analysis tools covering areas larger than covered by the typical Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) or State Department of Transportation (DOT) models. This paper describes what makes mega-regions different and identifies analytic issues mega-regions may need to address, identifies the Chesapeake Mega-region and provides a framework for analyzing issues within the Chesapeake mega-region. Finally, the framework is tested through a proof of concept scenario which assumes a sudden price rise in gasoline prices and the likely effects on travel. A brief summary of further work and additional scenarios planned is provided.