Browsing by Author "Chakraborty, Arnab"

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    A Case for Increased State Role in Transit Planning: Analyzing Land Use and Transit Ridership Connections Using Scenarios
    (2011) Chakraborty, Arnab; Mishra, Sabyasachee
    Land use and neighborhood characteristics have long been linked to transit ridership. Large-scale agencies, such as state departments of transportations, often make decisions that affect land use pattern and transit services. However, the interdependencies between them are seldom harnessed in decision-making. In this article, we develop and apply a transit ridership model based on land use and other neighborhood characteristics for an entire state. We then discuss its implications for regional and state-level decision-making. We chose the state of Maryland as our study area. Using a number of criteria, we subdivided the state into 1151 statewide modeling zones (SMZs) and, for each zone in the base year (2000), developed a set of variables, including developed land under different uses, population and employment densities, free-flow and congested speeds, current transport capacities, and accessibility to different transport modes. We estimated two sets of OLS-regression models for the base year data: one on the statewide SMZs dataset and other on subsets of urban, suburban and rural typologies. We find that characteristics of land use, transit accessibility, income, and density are strongly significant and robust for the statewide and urban areas datasets. We also find that determinants and their coefficients vary across urban, suburban and rural areas suggesting the need for finely tuned policy. Next we used a suite of econometric and land use models to generate two scenarios for the horizon year (2030) – business as usual and high-energy price – and estimated ridership changes between them. We use the resulting scenarios to show how demand could vary by parts of the state and demonstrate the framework’s value in large-scale decision-making.
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    An Experiment in Statewide Scenario Analysis: Towards an Even Smarter Growth for Maryland
    (2007-08-03) Chakraborty, Arnab; Knaap, Gerrit J; Urban and Regional Planning and Design; Digital Repository at the University of Maryland; University of Maryland (College Park, Md.)
    Using scenario analysis, this dissertation explores the impacts of alternative development patterns on quality-of-life indicators for the state of Maryland. It compares existing conditions and six alternative scenarios using a set of planning-relevant indicators, such as open space protected, vehicle miles traveled, and proximity to highways and transit. The scenarios are - 1) extension of past trends, 2) build-out of local government zoning, 3) a regional vision developed through representative, participatory process, and three rule-based experimental scenarios (4, 5 and 6) developed through a land use allocation model. This experiment in scenario analysis adds to the literature in two respects. First, it offers a rare experiment in scenario analysis at the statewide level. In that respect, it offers new insights concerning the influence of geographic unit of analysis, methods of aggregation, and the choice of performance indicators. Second, it offers new insights into the performance of alternative state-level land use policies. It shows, for example, that by most measures of performance land use planning by local government yields the poorest outcomes. The smart growth strategy in which growth is contained in state approved Priority Funding Areas yield better outcomes. Even better outcomes are possible, however, by containing growth in urban corridors, an urban core diamond, or as recommended by the public in a "Reality Check" exercise. Whether there is sufficient political support to implement these better performing outcomes, however, remains uncertain.