STOCHASTIC SIMULATION OF WOLF CREEK DAM OPERATIONS FOR USACE

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Date

2019

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Abstract

The Wolf Creek Dam situated on the Cumberland River in the state of Kentucky, United States is a multipurpose dam generating hydroelectricity, providing flood risk reduction, supporting year-round navigation on the lower Cumberland River, and it creating Lake Cumberland for recreation and water supply. The latter is a popular tourist attraction. Because of piping and internal erosion problems in the dam's foundation, it is a USACE top-priority structure. This thesis experiments with and tests the applicability of a stochastic simulation of the dam using historical inflow data based on a model built on GoldSim™. The model uses standard operating rules of the Dam to spot possible failures to the turbines that could affect the performance of the dam. In addition, the model simulates the behavior of the dam 50 years in to the future during which time the components reach their close to their maximum life. Results of the study suggest that simulation models of this type may serve to provide information for reliability-based maintenance strategies, and to help identify adverse patterns of dam performance which may be addressed through asset management.

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