RELIABILITY TESTING & BAYESIAN MODELING OF HIGH POWER LEDS FOR USE IN A MEDICAL DIAGNOSTIC APPLICATION
Sawant, Milind Mahadeo
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While use of LEDs in fiber optics and lighting applications is common, their use in medical diagnostic applications is rare. Since the precise value of light intensity is used to interpret patient results, understanding failure modes is very important. The contributions of this thesis is that it represents the first measurements of reliability of AlGaInP LEDs for the medical environment of short pulse bursts and hence the uncovering of unique failure mechanisms. Through accelerated life tests (ALT), the reliability degradation model has been developed and other LED failure modes have been compared through a failure modes and effects criticality analysis (FMECA). Appropriate ALTs and accelerated degradation tests (ADT) were designed and carried out for commercially available AlGaInP LEDs. The bias conditions were current pulse magnitude and duration, current density and temperature. The data was fitted to both an Inverse Power Law model with current density J as the accelerating agent and also to an Arrhenius model with T as the accelerating agent. The optical degradation during ALT/ADT was found to be logarithmic with time at each test temperature. Further, the LED bandgap temporarily shifts towards the longer wavelength at high current and high junction temperature. Empirical coefficients for Varshini's equation were determined, and are now available for future reliability tests of LEDs for medical applications. In order to incorporate prior knowledge, the Bayesian analysis was carried out for LEDs. This consisted of identifying pertinent prior data and combining the experimental ALT results into a Weibull probability model for time to failure determination. The Weibull based Bayesian likelihood function was derived. For the 1st Bayesian updating, a uniform distribution function was used as the Prior for Weibull á-â parameters. Prior published data was used as evidence to get the 1st posterior joint á-â distribution. For the 2nd Bayesian updating, ALT data was used as evidence to obtain the 2nd posterior joint á-â distribution. The predictive posterior failure distribution was estimated by averaging over the range of á-â values. This research provides a unique contribution in reliability degradation model development based on physics of failure by modeling the LED output characterization (logarithmic degradation, TTF â<1), temperature dependence and a degree of Relevance parameter `R' in the Bayesian analysis.